Finalists for the 2024 Hugo Awards have been announced! Congratulations to all the finalists. A few surprises, but not many. Here’s how my prediction model stacked up against the actual finalists (correct predictions bolded).
Novel finalists:
- The Adventures of Amina al-Sirafi by Shannon Chakraborty
- The Saint of Bright Doors by Vajra Chandrasekera
- Some Desperate Glory by Emily Tesh
- Starter Villain by John Scalzi
- Translation State by Ann Leckie
- Witch King by Martha Wells
Novel predictions:
Starling House – Alix E. Harrow- Witch King – Martha Wells
- Translation State – Ann Leckie
- The Adventures of Amina al-Sirafi – Shannon Chakraborty
- Some Desperate Glory – Emily Tesh
System Collapse – Martha Wells(nomination declined)- Starter Villain – John Scalzi (alternate)
Novella finalists:
- “Life Does Not Allow Us to Meet”, He Xi / 人生不相见, 何夕, translated by Alex Woodend
- Mammoths at the Gates by Nghi Vo
- The Mimicking of Known Successes by Malka Older
- Rose/House by Arkady Martine
- “Seeds of Mercury”, Wang Jinkang / 水星播种, 王晋康, translated by Alex Woodend
- Thornhedge by T. Kingfisher
Novella predictions:
- Mammoths at the Gate – Nghi Vo
- Thornhedge – T. Kingfisher
- The Mimicking of Known Successes – Malka Older
The Crane Husband – Kelly BarnhillLies of the Ajungo – Moses Ose UtomiLost in the Moment and Found – Seanan McGuire
Initial thoughts
I feel good that I was able to predict 5/6 of the best novel finalists. 3/6 novellas isn’t great, but understandable considering the two works originally published in Chinese were not even in my database, since I only track English-language websites and awards. It will be interesting to see how close my other predicted novellas were to becoming finalists when the nominating stats are released after the awards take place in Glasgow this August.
As expected, Martha Wells declined a nomination for System Collapse, but accepted one for Witch King. Scalzi’s Starter Villain was included as an alternate prediction in anticipation of that happening. I appreciate that Glasgow decided to reveal which individuals declined nominations now instead of waiting until the awards ceremony as is typical, in an effort to promote transparency in voting administration. This also reveals that, for the first time ever, Seanan McGuire’s Wayward Children series is not a Hugo finalist.
Snubs and surprises
- As mentioned above, the Wayward Children series did not make the ballot for the first time since it has been eligible to do so. With three wins under its belt from eight nominations, including every single book in the series and the series as a whole, with the most recent win coming just last year, I’d call this an upset.
- McGuire is still a finalist this year for her October Daye series. That in itself is a surprise because the series was also a finalist last year and the official rules state: “If a Series is a finalist and does not win, it is no longer eligible until at least two more installments consisting of at least 240,000 words total appear in subsequent years.” But apparently she published two novels, two novellas, and some shorter fiction in the series throughout 2023 making it eligible again. As well as her Wayward Children novella and an additional novel in her InCryptid series. Talk about prolific.
- This only surprise on the list of best novels is The Saint of Bright Doors by Vajra Chandrasekera. I had it ranked in my top 25, but if it hadn’t already been a Nebula finalist, I probably wouldn’t have even noticed it. Notably it only has 1385 ratings on Goodreads, fewer than any novel or novella at the time of announcement since I started tracking. Not that Goodreads specifically is a good bellwether, but it does serve to represent the general popularity of books. Granted, it is a Tor novel, which goes a long way, and it was included on the Locus RR list, so it’s not completely out of left field.
- The most notable novel snub is Alix E. Harrow’s Starling House, which had a lot going for it statistically and was one of the most widely read novels of 2023. That said, it also wasn’t a lock so it’s not a particularly shocking exclusion.
- Only 3 of the novella finalists are published by a Tor imprint!
- Otherwise, everything else is pretty much as expected. Rose/House didn’t make my final list (in large part because it wasn’t published by Tor), but it was next in line, so no surprise there.
I’ll incorporate all of this new information to create a prediction model for the 2025 awards within the next couple days. It may seem too early, but both Amina al-Sirafi and Some Desperate Glory were on my initial prediction list posted way back in July of last year, so you never know. Feel free to share your own reactions and how your predictions stacked up in the comments.