Finalists for the 2025 Hugo Awards have been announced! The title includes “surprises”, although there weren’t many; it just seemed like the kind of title one should post after an awards announcement. Overall my prediction model correctly predicted 9/12 finalists, which is pretty consistent with years past, and better than last year! And all of the finalists that didn’t make my prediction list were all really close. Here’s how my model stacked up against the actual finalists (correct predictions bolded).
Novel finalists:
Alien Clay by Adrian Tchaikovsky- The Ministry of Time by Kaliane Bradley
Service Model by Adrian Tchaikovsky- Someone You Can Build a Nest In by John Wiswell
- A Sorceress Comes to Call by T. Kingfisher
- The Tainted Cup by Robert Jackson Bennett
Incorrect predictions:
The Mercy of Gods by James S.A. CoreyThe Warm Hands of Ghosts by Katherine Arden
Novella finalists:
- The Brides of High Hill by Nghi Vo
- The Butcher of the Forest by Premee Mohamed
Navigational Entanglements by Aliette de Bodard- The Practice, the Horizon, and the Chain by Sofia Samatar
- The Tusks of Extinction by Ray Nayler
- What Feasts at Night by T. Kingfisher
Incorrect predictions:
The Imposition of Unnecessary Obstacles by Malka Older
Snubs and surprises
- The only snub/surprise that stands out to me, based on the books I’ve been tracking over the last year, is the omission of The Mercy of Gods by James S.A. Corey. It was a very popular and well-received novel and I’m surprised that both of the Tchaikovsky novels made the ballot over it, because of that. I’m singling those two out because I feel like they fall into the same general genre space. I’m curious how close it was to making the ballot. I would guess very close. It’ll be interesting to see when the nominating stats are released. Corey seems a lot more popular with a general audience, but Tchaikovsky seems a lot more involved in fandom and con culture, so maybe that made the difference.
- Alien Clay and Service Model were the next two novels on my prediction model at #7 and #8, respectively, and both had been on the list for long periods of time throughout the year, so it’s no surprise that they made the ballot—but no author has had two Best Novel finalists on the ballot in the same year since Robert Silverberg in 1973! I think that may actually be the only other time, but will have to check.
- In the Best Novella category, Navigational Entanglements was one of the novellas within tenths of a point of making my prediction list and ended up at #8 on the final list, so again, no surprise to see it on the final ballot. It does have the distinction of being the least widely read novella of any since I’ve started keeping track, with only 544 reviews on Goodreads at the time of announcement (with the exception of the two Chinese-language novellas from last year which weren’t even on Goodreads at the time).
- Sound off if there are any other snubs or surprises that stood out to you.
Interesting Stats
- Best Novel was a sausage fest this year, with 4/6 finalists written by men. It’s the first time it has happened since the rules were changed in 2017 to include 6 nominees instead of 5. The last time 4 novels on the ballot were written by men was 2010 (with Boneshaker by Cherie Priest being the odd one out).
- It’s tied for the most diverse list of novels in terms of publishers, with 5 different publishers represented. The only multiple nominee is Tor/Tordotcom with A Sorceress Comes to Call and Service Model (Tor UK distributed Alien Clay in the UK, but Orbit did in the US). The last time that happened was in 2019, which was also the last time Tor had fewer than 3 finalists represented.
- Tor has still published 17/30 novels in the last 5 years. The next most represented publisher is Orbit with 3/30, accounting for two-thirds of all novels between the two of them.
- On the flip side, a Tor imprint has published 26/30 novellas in the last 5 years. In 3 of the last 5 years (including this year), all six novellas on the ballot were published by Tor.
- In the last 5 years, 60% of best novel finalists were best sellers (NYT, USAToday, PW), and 70% received a starred review from PW or Kirkus. For context, of the 365 novels in my database last year, 15% were best sellers and 25% were starred.
- It’s a very even balance between SF and fantasy novels among finalists in the last five years. Some straddle genres, of course, but 15/30 were generally considered to be fantasy, 14/30 SF, and 1 horror (The Daughter of Doctor Moreau by Silvia Moreno-Garcia, which many would argue should be primarily categorized as SF anyway).
- This is the second year in a row that none of the finalists have been sequels (with the possible exception of Translation State by Ann Leckie last year, which is part of a shared universe, but not a direct sequel).
- For novellas, you would have to go back to 2016 to find a year when none of the finalists were sequels.
- 22/30 novels over the last 5 years were written by authors who had previously been Hugo finalists (within 5 years). Of those 22 authors, 17 had been finalists multiple times, with the average being 3.6 times. The most previously nominated has been T. Kingfisher who, in 2023, had been nominated 8 times in the 5 years leading up. This year, she is again the most previously nominated author with 7 nominations in the last 5 years.
- In terms of other awards, 26/30 novels were previously nominated for a Goodreads Choice Award, 28/30 were on the Locus Recommended Reading List, and 14/30 were Nebula Award finalists.
- In April 2024 when I posted my first 2025 prediction list, A Sorceress Comes to Call; The Tainted Cup; The Practice, the Horizon, and the Chain; Tusks of Extinction; and The Brides of High Hill were all on it! Look for 2026 predictions to go up in the next week or so.
- Someone asked a while ago about whether I had a model to predict Best Series. I do not, but I looked through my Best Novels database and just went down the list finding which novels were in an eligible series and these were the top 6: Absolution (Southern Reach); Wind and Truth (Stormlight Archives); Mirrored Heavens (Between Earth and Sky); Lotus Empire (Burning Kingdoms); Angel of Indian Lake (Indian Lake Trilogy); and Tidal Creatures (Alchemical Journeys). So 4/6 ended up being finalists for Best Series, which I thought was interesting. Of the other two finalists, Tchaikovsky’s Tyrant Philosophers book was further down the list, and McGuire’s latest InCryptid novel wasn’t even in the database, although I thought it was interesting that she was still in my top 6 through her Alchemical Journeys series.
Anything else you’re curious about? I might edit once I have more time to pore over the Best Novella finalists.